Ten incretin molecules on the market. Twenty-five Chinese candidates behind them.
Each square is one molecule. The market today is six molecules sold worldwide plus four approved only in China; the Chinese pipeline shown at EASD alone is more than twice that. Behind it, L.E.K. Consulting counted 60–70 Chinese pipeline assets in phase 2 or later as of February 2025, about half of them for weight management, plus 15–20 semaglutide biosimilar programmes.
Marketed = approved for diabetes or obesity in at least one major market, 1 Oct 2026On the market today: 10
Chinese-origin candidates tracked here: 25
Behind these, 60–70 Chinese assets were in phase 2 or later in February 2025 (L.E.K.). Biosimilars of liraglutide and semaglutide are not counted here.
Mechanism against stage
Each cell counts molecules; click a cell to list them in the table below. Stage is the highest reached anywhere, as disclosed publicly.
Status as of 1 October 2026Who makes what, and who bought it
Filter by mechanism, stage or partner. Abstract numbers open the entry on the congress platform.
| Molecule | Mechanism · dosing | Stage | Western partner · deal | At EASD 2026 |
|---|
Six patterns in the Chinese programmes
Read across the 31 abstracts and the public status, the Chinese molecules do not just copy the leaders. Six features recur, each with the abstracts behind it.
Where the Western pipeline stands on the same features
| Feature | Chinese programmes at EASD 2026 | Western comparators |
|---|---|---|
| Oral small-molecule GLP-1 with phase 3 done | HRS-7535: two phase 3 trials, filing accepted in China | Orforglipron (Lilly): phase 3 complete, filings in 2026; elecoglipron (AZ, ex-Eccogene) entering phase 3 |
| Once-weekly oral | HRS-1596 (preclinical, licensed to Novo); oral ecnoglutide VRB-101 (phase 2b, Verdiva) | No once-weekly oral incretin in late development |
| Dosing every two weeks or monthly | RAY1225 (two-weekly, phase 3); bofanglutide (up to monthly, phase 3); ASC35/ASC36 (monthly, phase 1) | MariTide (Amgen, monthly, phase 3); CagriSema and tirzepatide weekly |
| Triple agonists | UBT251 (phase 2, Novo), HRS-4729 (phase 1), XTL6001 (MasR, phase 1), DD1013 (amylin triple, preclinical) | Retatrutide (Lilly, phase 3 reported this week); UBT251 is now also Novo's |
| Active comparators in registration trials | UBT251 vs semaglutide; TG103 vs dulaglutide; HRS-7535 vs dapagliflozin; HDM1702 equivalence vs Wegovy; HDM1005 vs dulaglutide | Placebo-controlled pivotal programmes with separate head-to-head trials (SURPASS-2, SURMOUNT-5) |
| Weekly insulin and fixed-ratio combinations | GZR4 superior to degludec and glargine; GZR102 (GZR4 + bofanglutide); SHR-3167 phase 1/2 | Icodec (Novo, approved outside the USA), efsitora (Lilly); IcoSema |
Eight deals in under three years
Upfront payments (orange) against headline totals including milestones (blue), in millions of US dollars. Headline totals are what the companies announced; most of each is contingent.
Licensing of Chinese-origin incretin assets
Verdiva–Sciwind: financial terms of the licence were not disclosed; Verdiva launched with a $411M Series A.Reading the deals
Four of the eight assets were preclinical or phase 1 when licensed: buyers are paying for chemistry (oral small molecules, once-weekly oral peptides) rather than for clinical data.
The two largest buyers are the two incumbents. Novo Nordisk has bought a triple agonist and an oral weekly dual agonist; Lilly already holds mazdutide outside China. Merck, Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Regeneron each entered obesity through a Chinese molecule.
Hengrui alone accounts for two of the eight deals and the single largest headline figure, and brought five clinical programmes to Milan.
Five results to remember
Numbers as published in the abstracts; late-breaking data only after presentation.
Oral small molecules and once-weekly oral peptides are the asset class being bought. Expect head-to-head claims against semaglutide and tirzepatide from Chinese phase 2 and 3 programmes within two years, first in China, then via the licensees.
Semaglutide follow-ons with phase 3 equivalence data exist already. Payers will reference Chinese pricing in negotiations well before any follow-on is registered locally.
In markets where incretins are bought out of pocket, Chinese-made GLP-1s arrive through parallel channels first. The medical question is which product has equivalence data and which does not.
Where each statement comes from
EASD results: congress abstract book, retrieved 1 October 2026; abstract numbers link to the platform (title public, full text behind the congress login). Deal terms and regulatory status: company releases and trade press, accessed 1 October 2026.